This study examined whether charting daily weight patterns can predict weight regain in obese patients. The subjects were 98 moderately obese Japanese women aged 23 to 66 years who were obliged to precisely record their daily weights during the initial 4-month education period, but not thereafter. The patients were followed up at 8, 12, and 16 months. Abdominal fat areas and blood samples were assessed in the outpatient clinic at 0, 4, and 16 months. The standard deviations (SDs) of the differences in body weight between "after waking up" and "after breakfast" (SDa), "after dinner" (SDb), and "before going to bed" (SDc) were calculated, which were parameters reflecting the fluctuations in the daily weight patterns during the first 4 months. SDc, but not SDa or SDb, was correlated positively with weight regain at 8, 12, and 16 months (P = 0.049, P 0.002, and P = 0.001, respectively). There were significant differences in temporal change in body weight and abdominal visceral fat between the small SDc group (SDc less than or equal to 25th percentile) and the large SDc group (SDc > 75th percentile), but not for subcutaneous abdominal fat or the serum concentrations of glucose, insulin, or lipids. The results indicate that fluctuation of body weight immediately before going to bed is useful for predicting the rebound in body weight.
